Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of ...

Bayesian analysis is one of the topics included in the subject "Environmental Risk Analysis" taught at the Faculty of Agronomy of the University of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Traditionally, we use a ...

'In a previous module, we covered Bayes theorem and the Bayesian paradigm. Conditional probabilities are a fundamental part of this previous covered rule. We first review a simple example to go over ...

In the world of probability theory and statistics, conditional distribution is an essential concept that helps understand the relationship between two or more events. Conditional distribution provides ...

ABSTRACT: We elaborate on an alternative representation of conditional probability to the usual tree diagram. We term the representation “turtleback diagram” for its resemblance to the pattern on ...

We consider here an important family of conditional bets, those that proceed to settlement if and only if some agreed evidence is received that a condition has been met. Despite an opinion widespread ...